Water AlliesTier 2
at 401 Kollectibles Regional
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-4-2
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.6%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1322
· median 1322
· range 1305–1340
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1196
Q3 1464
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.4% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.4% | -6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 21.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 10.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
